Gold prices dropped on Friday, reversing earlier gains. The precious metal fell by more than 1.70%, trading at $2,317 after reaching a daily high of $2,368.
This decline was influenced by strong economic data from the United States, which caused investors to reconsider the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Mixed Signals from the US Economy
The US economy continues to show mixed signals. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June exceeded expectations, surpassing May’s figures. However, the housing sector remains weak, with May’s Existing Home Sales falling short of expectations and dropping compared to April.
Impact on the US Dollar
The PMI release led investors to shift from gold to the US Dollar, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to rise by 0.14% to 105.80. This move highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the US economy. While some indicators, such as Industrial Production and Retail Sales, have improved, others, like housing and unemployment claims, suggest underlying weaknesses.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Despite the mixed economic data, speculation about a possible Fed rate cut in September remains. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 59.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, up from 57.5% the previous day. Futures contracts for December 2024 suggest a further cut of 36 basis points by year-end.
Technical Analysis of Gold
Gold prices are under pressure, with technical indicators pointing to a possible correction. After a three-month rally that began in March and peaked at an all-time high of $2,450, gold is now testing key support levels. The next significant support is at $2,300. If this level is breached, gold could fall to $2,277 and potentially to $2,222.
Broader Market Influences
The broader market also saw significant movements:
- US Treasury bond yields remained firm, with the 10-year Treasury note yield flat at 4.261%.
- S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7, exceeding the estimate of 51. The Services PMI increased to 55.1, surpassing the forecast of 53.7.
- May’s Existing Home Sales fell to 4.11 million from 4.14 million in April, a decline of 0.7%.
Fed officials have advised patience regarding interest rate cuts, emphasizing that their decisions will be data-dependent. Despite a positive CPI report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious about inflation progress.
Understanding Gold’s Role
Gold has long been a crucial asset, valued for its use as jewelry and a safe-haven investment. It acts as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, particularly during economic turbulence.
Central banks are major holders of gold, using it to diversify reserves and strengthen economic stability. In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold to their reserves, the highest annual purchase on record.
Gold’s price is inversely correlated with the US Dollar and US Treasuries. When the Dollar depreciates, gold prices typically rise. Conversely, strong stock markets can weaken gold prices, while market sell-offs boost them.
Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Several factors can influence gold prices:
- Geopolitical instability and recession fears can drive prices up due to gold’s safe-haven status.
- Lower interest rates tend to boost gold prices, while higher rates can weigh them down.
- The US Dollar’s strength or weakness significantly impacts gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).
Investors should stay informed and cautious, considering the inherent risks and uncertainties in the market.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.